Unemployment

There are two ways of measuring unemployment. One is to look at ‘model based unemployment’ and the other is to look at the number of people claiming job seeker’s allowance.

Model based unemployment

The method favoured by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) is a sample survey in which people are asked if they have a job and, if not, whether they want to work, are available to work and are actively seeking employment. In the UK, the government’s annual population survey (previously the Labour force survey) does this.

As unemployed form a small percentage of the population, the APS unemployed estimates within local authorities are based on very small samples so for many areas would be unreliable. To overcome this, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has developed a statistical model that provides better estimates of total unemployed for unitary authorities and local authority districts.

The model-based estimate improves on the APS estimate by borrowing strength from the claimant count to produce an estimate that is more precise (it has a smaller confidence interval). The claimant count is not itself a measure of unemployment but is strongly correlated with unemployment, and, as it is an administrative count, is known without sampling error. The gain in precision is greatest for areas with smaller sample sizes.

Working age unemployment for the calendar year 2010 was modelled at 13.5 per cent, an increase on the 2004 baseline figure of 6.8 per cent but a decrease on the previous year (2009) when the figure peaked at 14.4 per cent. The figure for modelled unemployment in 2010 was higher than the figure for the region (8.8 per cent) and nationally (7.7 per cent).

Job seeker’s allowance claimants

Many unemployed people are eligible to claim job seeker’s allowance (JSA). Counting people claiming JSA is comparatively simple but, as a count of the unemployed, the result has the disadvantage of excluding those who are not eligible, which generally affects the count of unemployed women much more than that of unemployed men.

In July 2011 there were 14,434 people in Hull claiming JSA, representing 8.0 per cent of the working age population. This was higher than the estimates for Yorkshire and the Humber (4.4 per cent) and Great Britain (3.8 per cent). 70 per cent of the city’s JSA claimants (10,076) were men and 10.8 per cent of working age men in Hull were claiming JSA, compared to 5.0 per cent of working age women.

More information about unemployment

More information on unemployment and JSA claimant numbers can be found on the NOMIS website.

Visit the NOMIS website (link opens in a new window)

Contact us

Customer insight team
Hull City Council
Guildhall
Alfred Gelder Street
Hull
HU1 2AA

Tel: 01482 300 300
Text phone: 01482 300 349
Fax: 01482 613 340
Email: customerinsight@hullcc.gov.uk